The Big Left Turn…Dispatches From Pit Road
Heath Calhoun 400 Edition
By James Ellison for RedHottLocks.com
If you missed what many fans are calling the greatest race in decades last week at Talledega, for shame. The Cup drivers shattered records across the board, as the race had 88 lead changes (hey, that’s Junior’s number…coincidence?) and 29 different leaders (hey, that’s Harvick’s number…coincidence?) and three Green-white-checker attempts (we all know who drove the 3 car, right?). Harvick and McMurray battled it out in what was the eighth-closest finish since the advent of electronic scoring way back in 1993. And fans of Ricky Bobby should recognize the slingshot maneuver at the end. Jimmie Johnson and Jeffrey Gordon saw their “feud” continue to escalate, as Johnson “misjudged the closing rate” of Gordon’s car and wrecked Gordon out of the race for the second week. Greg Biffle got wrecked out by Johnson, and then called out in the press by him as well. Talladega has long been thought of as a lottery, both by the drivers and the fans. The only person that is “supposed” to win at Dega is Dale Junior, but his fans think he should win everywhere. An interesting side note for those who are tracking these things: McMurray has finished 1st and 2nd on the two restrictor plate tracks, and Harvick had the dominant car at Daytona. Since the Cup Circuit returns to both of these tracks, gamblers take note.
This week NASCAR returns to Richmond International Raceway in Richmond, Virginia. Built in 1946, the Richmond track (then made of dirt) actually predates NASCAR, and is classified as a short track because of its 0.75 mile length, but its 14 degree banking and wide surface lend themselves more to speedway racing. Virginia is the home of three notable Cup drivers: Denny Hamlin, Jeff Burton, and Elliot Sadler. Well…two notable Cup drivers, anyways. Hamlin has won already with his surgically reconstructed ACL, and a return to Victory Lane here in his home state is certainly not out of the question. Burton has been a Championship contender and won here, albeit in a Ford for Roush Racing. Sadler, on the other hand, has never won here in 22 career attempts. Jeremy Mayfield even notched a win here! Sadler, with all due respect, you suck.
Jimmie Johnson is once again the Vegas favorite (+500/+150), and he most likely will be the favorite at every race for the rest of the season. The guy is dominant, except here at Richmond. In the last ten races here, Johnson has three wins. He also has three top 3’s, three top 5’s, and three top 10’s. He either wins or finishes outside of the top 10. His average finish over that same stretch is 18.0, and that includes the three wins. And he’ll be dealing with a feuding Jeffrey this week, too. I don’t think this feud is going to go anywhere else, and I certainly don’t think Gordon is going to take him out of the race, but I’d spend my money on some other pick beside Jimmie this week.
A close second behind Jimmie is Denny. Hamlin, a native Virginian, sits at +600 to win and +180 to finish top 3. In eight previous races here, Hamlin has only one win (last year), but he has four top 3’s, the second lowest average finish, the highest Driver Rating, and the only bionic ACL. He’s also led the most laps on the track over that same time span.
Jeffrey Gordon, Kyle Busch, and Mark Martin clock in at +800/+250. Out of these three drivers, Kyle Busch is the clear favorite. He’s got one win, four top 3’s, eight top 5’s, and eight top 10’s in the last 10 races here. He’s also got the best average finish (6.0), the third highest Driver Rating, and the third most laps led. His aggressive driving style suits the track well, and the durability of the CoT racecars they’re driving means that Kyle can bang off of the wall coming out of Turn 4. Mark Martin has an average finish of 9.9 with only one top 3 in the last 10 races. Yes, he has a win here, but he also has something like thirty attempts. Even a blind Mayfield can eventually find some meth. Gordon also has a win here, way back in 1990, and in the last ten races he’s posted an average finish of 17.6, with only one top 3. Oh, and him and BFF Jimmie Johnson are still feuding. Like girls carrying grudges. And Championships. Maybe jealousy is the cause of the feud?
The next tier of drivers (at +1200/+350) includes the red hot Kevin Harvick, the maddeningly inconsistent Kurt Busch, and the other one, Tony Stewart. Harvick has had the best start of a season that I can remember, and I’m glad he finally got a win. In the last ten races here, he’s posted a win, two top 3’s, a Driver Rating of 113.6, and an average finish of 9.1. He’s gotten nine top 10’s. That’s perfect, if you can find odds on top 10s. Kurt Busch has the same number of wins and top 3’s as Harvick, and even the same number of top 5’s (they each have three). But his average finish is 15.4, and his Driver Rating is 97.0. Tony Stewart has a better average finish than either of them (6.8), and a very respectable Driver Rating of 102.2. He has no wins in the past ten races here, but is tied with Jimmie Johnson and, surprisingly, Dale Junior for most wins at the track (all tied with three wins). He does, however, have 4 top 3’s in the last ten races.
As for the dark horse, Junior’s name should come up, since he has three wins here. At +2500 to win, it’s apparent the folks at Vegas don’t expect him to grab another win anytime soon. Another fellow that might warrant your attention is the other other Junior. Sam Hornish, Junior has exactly four starts at Richmond. The former Indy Car standout finished outside the top 35 in the first two, and inside the top 10 in the second two. And car owner Roger Penske has stated that Hornish will have a ride in 2011, even though the car is, as of now, unsponsored for next year. That should be motivation enough for the guy. Since winning, or even finishing in the top 5, isn’t.
Well, it’s almost smoking season and I just cleaned up my deck, so I need to stock the freezer with some pork butts. Time to make some money!
To Win/To Finish Top 3
Denny Hamlin +600/+180 – I’m not betting against the reconstructed knee, and it’s his house.
Kyle Busch +800/+250 – Rowdy Busch’s style suits him well here.
Tony Stewart +1200/+350 – Good pick for a top 3.
Kevin Harvick +1200/+350 – He’s got the Big Mo on his side right now.
Balls of Steel Pick: Besides Dale Junior (+2500/+750), I have a funny feeling about the other other Junior. Sam Hornish could break into the top 3, and while I don’t see a win, at +10000/+3000, it’s a lot of pork butts.
