The Big Left Turn…Dispatches From Pit Road
Samsung Mobile 500 Edition
By James Ellison for RedHottLocks.com
The NASCAR world saw a seismic shift this past week. Kasey Kahne has ended his run at Richard Petty Motorsports. Kahne has been driving the 9 Dodge for the majority of his career, and when Evernham Motorsports was gobbled up by the conglomeration that eventually became RPM, he stuck with them in the 9 Ford. The guy can race, and he can attract sponsors (and make some very feminine commercials). Hendrick landed the biggest fish out there, and even if Kahne runs for some Hendrick-affiliated team in 2011, he’s got a seat in the number 5 car come 2012. Let’s have a look at the Hendrick boys: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin, and Dale Junior. Add in the affiliates over at Stewart-Haas Racing: Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman. Now add Kahne into the mix. That’s a lot of talent. This assumes, of course, that SHR is willing to add a third team, heavily funded by Hendrick. Roush Fenway will be looking to keep up, and chances are good that David Ragan is out of the 6 car. But who will take his place? And where is the Roush affiliate? Gibbs Racing seems set, with three young, hot drivers who have all won at the Cup level. Childress Racing has to be wondering if Harvick will bolt at the end of the season. Red Bull Racing seems to have lucked out with Vickers and Scott Speed, but we’re talking two teams versus four (or up to seven, with affiliates). Michael Waltrip Racing will also struggle to keep up, as Reutimann, Truex, and Ambrose aren’t exactly top tier talent. And poor Richard Petty Motorsports is left with Elliot Sadler as their marquee driver (along with A.J. Allmendinger and Paul Menard).
All of this serves as a nice backdrop to Texas Motor Speedway. The Cup circuit returns to Fort Worth, TX, where everything is bigger. Everything, that is, except the track, which is a 1.5 mile quad oval. The track is almost exactly like Atlanta Motor Speedway, Lowe’s Motor Speedway, Chicagoland Speedway, Las Vegas Speedway, and Kansas Speedway. I’ve talked about “cookie cutter” tracks before, and Texas is one of them. It makes the race somewhat easier to handicap, because if a driver runs well at one of the similiarly configured tracks, it stands to reason that he should run well at Texas. In theory, at least. And history states that if you’re in the top 12 in the points standings after this race, you will most likely make the Chase (72.7% since 2004). Good news for Junior Nation.
Jimmie Johnson is once again the Vegas favorite to win at +450 (and +130 to finish top 3). He has won here before (back in 2007), and has posted 5 top 3’s in twelve starts. He’s obviously been running well, and should be a relatively safe pick. He was 5th quickest in practice, and speed rules at Texas. I don’t see a win, but a top 3 is certainly possible. His teammate, Jeffrey Gordon, is the second favorite (+800/+250). Gordon also has one win (spring of last year), and has five top 3’s in the last ten years (14 races). Jeffrey has been in position to win several times this season, but the green-white-checker restarts have been anathema to him. Big word, I know. It means he can’t win on the restarts. He’s another good pick for a top 3, and I think he’s more likely to pull it off than Johnson.
The Brothers Busch round out the favorites at +900/+250 (Kurt) and +1000/+300 (Kyle). Kurt was 17th fastest in practice, and has a worse Driver Rating than his younger brother. But he did win the last race at this track. However, he hasn’t posted anything of worth except that win. Kyle, on the other hand, hasn’t won here, but does have one top 3 to his name. And that’s about it. I’d avoid both brothers this week, even though I normally love Busch.
The next grouping of drivers includes most of the Roush Fords, and Tony Stewart. Stewart (+1200/+350) is the pole sitter, and was second fastest in practice. And he’s probably a little ticked off that Newman won before he did this season. He’s got one win and two top 3’s in his history at Texas, but he’s bound to be hungry, and he actually has the best Driver Rating here. Matt Kenseth (+1200/+350) has the second highest Driver Rating, and the track record for average finish, and one win and five top 3’s. And he’s second in the points standings, and would love to take the lead form Jimmie. Kenseth’s teammates, Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle are both at +1500/+450. Biffle had the fastest car in practice, and sits third in the points, right behind Kenseth. He also has a win at Texas, but his average finish is almost 21st. Edwards has two wins at Texas and the third best Driver Rating, but his average finish is 16th, with one third of his finishes being 25th or worse. For some reason or another, I feel like the winner will come out of this group.
I suppose I should mention some dark horses: Dale Junior (+2500/+750) and Kasey Kahne (+2000/+600). Junior actually has a decent Driver Rating at Texas (8th overall) and a win here. But let’s face it, this guy is going downhill almost as fast as Jeremy Mayfield. In the past six races he has always finished further back from where he started. He qualified ninth, so you can expect a finish around 15+. Kahne just dropped a “Screw you, I’m leaving” bombshell on his team and crew, so I’d be very surprised if he wins at all this year.
Well, I spent a few days out on the lake this past week, and methinks we’re gonna need a bigger boat. Time to make some money.
To Win/To Finish Top 3
Greg Biffle +1500/+450 – I think he gets the win.
Tony Stewart +1200/+350 – Another great candidate for a win.
Jeff Gordon +800/+250 – Liking the top 3 action.
Matt Kenseth +1200/+350 – Another great top 3 guy.
Carl Edwards +1500/+450 – What can I say, Ford runs well at Texas.
Balls of Steel Pick: Well, besides Dale Junior, you might want to look at the RCR boys. Burton has won twice, but Harvick and Bowyer have never won here. Harvick (+1800/+550) has been hot lately, and Bowyer (+2000/+600) was fast in practice and qualified well. And if you’re really, really into sweating out races, look to Scott Speed (+10,000/+3000). He was 8th quickest in practice and has been running well on the 1.5 mile tracks. He’s due to get a top 5, and it could happen this week.
“Stick with the Circus, Stick with the Cash”
