The Big Left Turn…Dispatches From Pit Road
Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500 Edition
By James Ellison, for RedHottLocks.com
NASCAR returns to storied Martinsville, Virginia this weekend. Martinsville, for those that do not already know, is shaped like a giant paper clip. The straight-aways are 800 feet long, and the turns are only banked 12 degrees. This makes for a huge amount of wear and tear on the brakes, as the drivers are basically racing down two drag strips. And when it’s all said and done, the winner receives a Grandfather Clock for a trophy. And you can probably guess who has the most clocks. Jimmie Johnson has absolutely dominated this Virginian track in the last five years, with five wins, eight top 3’s, and nine top 5’s (out of a possible ten races). His closest competition: teammate Jeffrey Gordon (2 wins, 6 top 3’s, 10 top 5’s.)
Shockingly, Johnson is the favorite to win once again, at +250 and -130 to finish in the top 3. There’s not a whole lot more to say about Johnson. His teammate, Jeffrey, is almost as dominant, at +500 to win and +150 to finish top3. In the last ten races here, Gordon has finished in the top 3 six times, compared to Johnson’s eight times. Out of these two, I like the action on Gordon a little better, if only because eventually somebody has to outrace Jimmie.
Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart round out the favorites. Hamlin is +500 to win and +180 to finish top 3. His average finishing position is 7.2, with two wins and 5 top 3’s in the last nine races. Sitting in 19th in the points shouldn’t sit well with the Virginia native, and I expect him to perform well this weekend. Tony Stewart (+1000 to win, +300 to finish top3) has one win in the past ten races here, but he does have the third best Driver Rating, and he is regarded as a flat track master. Unfortunately, in the past ten races he has usually fallen short behind Johnson, Gordon, and Hamlin.
If you’re looking for a couple of Dark Horses, look to Dale Junior and Juan Pablo Montoya. Junior is currently eight in the points standings, which is higher than he’s been in about four years. At +2000 to win and +600 to finish top 3, he’s not that bad of a pick. The guy is, according to Junior Nation, past due for a win. Juan Pablo Montoya sits at +1800 to win and +500 to finish top 3. He’s got an average finish of 11.0 with one top 3, but he’s also only raced at Martinsville six times.
Well, I’ve got a couple of Red Hott Locks for this weekend, so I might as well make some money.
Picks to Win/To Finish Top 3
Jimmie Johnson +250/-130 – If you’re feeling froggy, go ahead and jump on the win. (And he’s hit the top 3 in eight out of the last ten races!)
Denny Hamlin +500/+150 – The other favorite to win, but I’m not feeling confident about him. Go top 3.
Jeff Gordon +600/+180 – Top 3 sounds about right, and it’s an easy pick.
Tony Stewart +1000/+300 – If you’re laying chips on Tony, go for the win. But he probably finishes 5th.
Balls of Steel Pick – Junior Nation, this one’s for you. Junior has never won here before, and I highly doubt he finds a way to win on Sunday. But Junior’s momentum hasn’t been this high in years, nor has his confidence. And his Driver Rating at Martinsville is 98.8, good for fifth overall. If he can keep from screwing up on pit road (a dicey proposition at best, given his track record) he might be able to pull out a top 3, and possibly a win. At +2000 to win (and +600 to finish top 3) it’s a nice payout.
“Stick with the Circus, Stick with the Cash”
