The Big Left Turn…Dispatches from Pit Road
Kobalt Tools 500 Edition
By James Ellison for RedHottLocks.com
NASCAR returns to fabled Atlanta Motor Speedway, conveniently located in Hampton, GA, not in Atlanta. Jimmie Johnson leads the Cup drivers in total wins, if not in points. Harvick leads the Cup drivers in points and in second place finishes. At this rate, Harvick will win the Championship without ever winning a single race. But enough musing, back to Atlanta. Atlanta is another of the “cookie-cutter” tracks, and is very similar to Las Vegas (1.54 miles versus 1.5 miles, with extremely similar banking configurations). What that means is you can use Vegas as an indicator of how things are going to end up at Atlanta. If a driver does well at Vegas, it stands to reason that he will do well in Atlanta. So you should expect Johnson, Harvick, Gordon, Martin, and the other usual suspects to race well here.
Speaking of Jimmie Johnson, he is (surprisingly) once again the favorite to win at +450. I said it last week, and I’ll say it again this week. He simply cannot win EVERY race. Johnson will not finish in the top 10 at Atlanta. However, he does have the best average finish (8.8), the best Driver Rating (110.1), and the second most wins (2) in the last five years at this track. You might want to disregard my earlier prediction.
Two of Johnson’s three teammates are also heavy favorites to win. And no, I’m not talking about Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin are both at +800 to win. Gordon finally found his testicles last week, only to have a bad decision in the pits cost him a win. I bet he takes four tires from here on out. He does race well at Atlanta, but has no wins and only 2 top 3’s in the past five years here. And Mark Martin’s stats are actually worse than that. Both drivers come into the race with momentum on their side, and both should run well. But we’re not about running well, we’re about making money. And while both should finish in the top 10, I don’t think either one of these drivers is going to finish in the money on Sunday.
The resurgent Richard Childress Racing team clocks in at +1200 to win. Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, and Jeff Burton are racing very well lately, and all three are in position to make the Chase this year. Atlanta Motor Speedway has not been kind to the Childress boys in the past. Their average finishing positions over the last five years: 14.6 (Burton), 15.6 (Bowyer), and 17.9 (Harvick). Harvick has finished 4th and 2nd here last year, which bodes well for him. Add to that the momentum on his side, and he’s geared up for another 2nd place run this weekend. Burton and Bowyer have never broken the top 3, and Bowyer has never finished better than 6th.
Carl Edwards, three time Atlanta winner, is at +1500 to win, along with Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, and Juan Pablo Montoya. Edwards has the second highest driver rating here (105.0) and the most wins in the last five years. He also has 5 finishes of third or better, and seven top 10’s. Unfortunately, he seems more than a little preoccupied with being a new father. Remember Carl, nothing says “Daddy loves you” like winning a race. Biffle has the 7th best Driver Rating (95.0), but an average finish of 15.2 and only 1 top 3, with no wins. Stewart, on the other hand, has the 5th best Driver Rating (98.6) and three top 3’s, and one win. Juan Pablo Montoya is missing Truex, Jr.
Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne round out the favorites at +1800 to win. Kenseth drives well at Atlanta, with a 9.6 average finish (good for third). He’s never won here, but all signs point to a win coming soon, since he’s finished each race better than the previous one, and everything seems to be clicking with new crew chief Todd Parrot (who has a Championship on his resume). Kahne has won twice at Atlanta, and finished 28th or worse four times. In nine total starts Kahn has 2 wins, a fifth place finish, a seventh, a ninth, and then the four 28+ finishes. His last two races here did result in a win and a seventh, however, so hopefully he’s left his poor finishes behind him. But he does drive for Richard Petty Motorsports, and their best driver currently is Paul “I’d do this without my Daddy” Menard.
It’s time to buy my Team USA hockey jersey. And Ryan Miller should change his middle name to Border Patrol. Ryan Border Patrol Miller. Sounds good. Congrats on the Silver, and screw Canada.
To Win/To Finish Top 3
Jimmie Johnson +450/+130 – Most likely top 3, but are you going to bet against him?
Carl Edwards +1500/+450 – I like the top 3 action.
Kevin Harvick +1200/+350 – Last week he logged his second 2nd. He’s hungry for the first 1st.
Matt Kenseth +1800/+550 – He should better his 5th place finish, which means possible top 3.
Balls of Steel Pick: Believe it or not, the owner of the fourth highest Driver Rating at Atlanta Motor Speedway is none other than Dale Junior. He’s finished third three times in the past ten races, and has an average finish of 11.5. The talking heads at NASCAR.com seem to think he’s turned things around, as evidenced by his 16th place finish last week. At +3000 to win and +900 to finish top 3, he’s a risky pick, but I can finally appease Junior Nation…somewhat.
“Stick with the Circus, Stick with the Cash”
