The Big Left Turn…Dispatches From Pit Road

Heluva Good! 400 Edition

By James Ellison for RedHottLocks.com

It’s been a while since I sat down and wrote one of these dispatches, and a while since I’ve wagered on any NASCAR races. Sorry about that, y’all. On a lighter note, this week the circuit returns to Michigan Speedway, located in Brooklyn, Michigan. This race track IS A TWO MILE OVAL, AND IS EXACTLY LIKE Auto Club Speedway out in Fontana, California. Rumor has it the Fontana track was built using the Michigan architectural plans. What that means is if a driver can run well at one track, he usually runs well at the other.

Jimmie Johnson, despite his recent woes, is still the Vegas favorite to win at +350/even. He won earlier this year at Auto Club, and the next race at Las Vegas, but lately he’s been having some trouble finding Victory Lane. An astute colleague of mine pointed out what could be the problem. Ever since NASCAR switched to the rear spoiler instead of the rear wing, Johnson hasn’t been running as well. Add to this the “feud” with his teammate and car owner, Jeffrey Gordon, and you can see that poor Jimmie has had some problems. I think he runs well this weekend, but I don’t see a win in his future here.

The two stalwarts of Joe Gibbs Racing, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin, are the next two favorites. Kyle is slightly ahead of Denny (+500/+150 versus +700/+200 respectively), and while Hamlin has more wins than Kyle, Kyle has been slightly more consistent in recent weeks. Both drivers are riding a huge wave of momentum, and with their teammate Joey Logano holding off the hard-charging Kevin Harvick (and his wife), Busch and Hamlin should perform extremely well.

Jeffrrey Gordon, teammate to Johnson, sits back even with Hamlin at +700/+200. Like Johnson, Gordon hasn’t been performing up to snuff lately. In fact, the only Hendricks driver that has been maintaining his standings in the organization is probably Dale Junior. He was bad early in the season, and he’s still bad now. Having said that, I see Gordon reeling in a top 10 finish, but I wouldn’t put money on the guy right now.

This brings us to the Richard Childress Crew, Harvick (+2000/+600), Bowyer (+2000/+600), and Burton (+1500/+450). All three drivers have been performing well in recent races, and all three are credible top 10 contenders. Harvick will be dealing with Joey Logano and his father, and Jeff Burton will get screwed on a double file restart, so that leaves Clint Bowyer as the best contender out of these three.

I feel I have to mention Kurt Busch (+1200/+350), if only because he somehow managed to salvage a good finish at Pocono last week when he was in the rear of the pack for the majority of the race. Good way to build up some mojo.

My Dark Horse pick was going to be Dale Junior, until I remembered that even Jeremy Mayfield has a win here.   So instead I’ll go with Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, and/or Matt Kenseth (all +2000/+600). Roush Racing used to own this track, but they haven’t won a single non-restrictor plate race since the Auto Club Race in 2009. Not the fall one, but the spring one. That’s right, it has been 16 months since Roush won a non-plate race.

Well, I ran out of winnings a while back, and I need the new Patrick Swayze Collection on DVD. You know Black Dog was classic Swayze! Time to make some money!

To Win/ To Finish Top 3

Kyle Busch - +500/+150 – I like the win.

Denny Hamlin - +700/+350 – Love the Top 3 action.

Clint Bowyer - +2000/+600 – A great top 3 candidate, maybe a winner…?

Greg Biffle - +2000/+600 – I just got a feeling about the Biff this week.

Jeff Burton - +1500/+450 – Not a winner, but I like the Top 3.

(Just think of the Killer B’s – Busch, Burton, Bowyer, and Biffle! Wow…I am clever…)

Balls of Steel Pick – Michigan has always rewarded drivers that are a little calmer and more patient, as the track is basically two lanes wide all the way around. Passing is never two difficult, and aggressive driving is usually more baneful than beneficial. Having said that, I’m looking at the Dinger (A. J. Allmendinger, for the uninitiated) and his +10,000/+3000 odds, and I’m thinking he could get that 43 car into the top 3. He’s been very close before, and he’s been the flagship of Petty Motorsports (along with Paul “I’d Be Racing Even If My Daddy Wasn’t Rich” Menard).